Executive Summary

U.S. presidential elections have far-reaching consequences, shaping not just domestic policies but also global economic and political landscapes. From trade agreements to military alliances and climate commitments, the policy priorities of a U.S. president can significantly impact other countries. But how do citizens outside the U.S. perceive American candidates, and to what extent do they believe these elections will affect their own countries? Using data from India, Poland, Israel, Germany, and Brazil, we show that these attitudes seem primarily influenced by perceptions of how much the candidate would favor the given country.

Key findings include:

Most countries were concerned about a Trump presidency. Only Israel expressed more optimism about the state of policies under Donald Trump as compared to Kamala Harris.
The majority of global respondents do not differentiate between economic and military outcomes. With the exception of Poland respondents did not think there was a significant difference between economic and military relations.
The election did little to moderate opinions. Though there were some differences in response to a Trump presidency following the election, the change was minimal and with the exception of Poland opinions got more extreme rather than less.

Why does how other countries perceive the U.S. and U.S. elections matter? These global perceptions shape diplomatic relationships, economic partnerships, and national security. When other countries view the U.S. positively it strengthens our alliances and fosters collaboration on global issues such as climate change. In an increasingly interconnected world few issues, including the economy, are solely domestic. Negative perceptions may inhibit the ability of the U.S. to address these issues and even contribute to instability.

Main Results

This report is a complement to the Path to 2024 reports on the state of partisan animosity in the U.S. conducted by the Polarization Research Lab (PRL) at Dartmouth College, University of Pennsylvania, and Stanford University. This report looks at 2,000 interviews per country conducted across five countries in October 2024 and January 2025 on the YouGov platform.

The focus of this March 2025 report is global attitudes towards the U.S. election. In October 2024, PRL asked individuals in Poland, Israel, India, Germany, and Brazil about how they felt the relationship between their county and the U.S. would change in general as well as economically and militarily if Donald Trump or Kamala Harris were elected president. Individuals were randomly assigned one of the presidential candidates in the study, and we compared results within each country across candidates. In January 2025, we conducted the survey again after the election asking about the relationship now that Donald Trump had been elected. Individuals are not necessarily repeated across waves.

Before the Election: Division Based on Rhetoric

Prior to the election, we asked respondents who they expected to win the election as well as how they thought a Trump or Harris presidency would influence their country’s economy, security, and political ties with the U.S. In all of the countries less than 50% of respondents predicted that Donald Trump would win. The highest prediction was 45% in Germany, closely followed by 43% in Poland, and the lowest was 31% in Israel.

Countries in which respondents were more likely to think Trump would win expected the effect of a Trump win to be worse. The responses to the influence questions varied across countries:

Germany and Poland: Many respondents believed a Trump victory would lead to worse outcomes across multiple areas.
Brazil: A similar, though slightly weaker, negative trend emerged.
India: No significant differences in perceptions of Trump versus Harris.
Israel: Respondents expected improvements in all categories under Trump.

To anchor the responses, a change of positive 0.5 is equivalent to a move from responding Worsen to Remain the Same or Remain the Same to Improve. A change of negative 0.5 is equivalent to the reverse. The average response across treatment conditions (Donald Trump win vs. Kamala Harris win) is approximately 0.5 for all of the outcome measures, which corresponds to a response of “Remain the Same.” The low and high for each measure were 0 (Worsen) and 1 (Improve) respectively.

These results suggest that people in other countries assess U.S. candidates partly based on their perceived stance toward their own country, rather than solely on policy specifics. In addition we found no difference in any of the countries in terms of desire to exchange money now or in 12 months.

Relationship with the United States: Respondents assessed whether their country’s relationship with the U.S. would improve, worsen, or stay the same based on the U.S. election outcome. The pooled effect across countries was -0.06, with the lowest effect in Germany (-0.458) and the highest in Israel (0.614).

Military Security: This measure captures whether respondents believed their country’s military security would improve or worsen under a Trump or Harris presidency. The pooled effect across countries was -0.03, with the lowest in Germany (-0.339) and the highest in Israel (0.529).

Economic Outlook: Respondents evaluated whether their country’s economy would improve or worsen under a Trump or Harris presidency. The pooled effect across countries was -0.03, with the lowest in Germany (-0.273) and the highest in Israel (0.381).

Trade Relations: This metric assesses whether respondents expected trade with the U.S. to improve or worsen under each election outcome. The pooled effect across countries was -0.04, with the lowest in Germany (-0.380) and the highest in Israel (0.437).

Currency Exchange Preferences: Respondents chose whether to convert $10 immediately at the current exchange rate or wait twelve months. The pooled effect across countries was -0.001, with the lowest in Israel (-0.025) and the highest in Brazil (0.032).

After the Election: Do Opinions Moderate?

To assess whether attitudes toward the U.S. president shifted post-election, we asked respondents the same set of questions, now exclusively about Donald Trump. If opinions were primarily reactionary before the election, we might expect some moderation once he took office.

Results varied across countries. In Poland and Israel, respondents showed a moderate increase in sentiment across most measures, though Israel reported lower optimism about the economic relationship, possibly in response to early tariff announcements. In contrast, respondents in Brazil and Germany reported a decline across most measures, suggesting growing skepticism after the election. In India, responses remained mixed, showing no consistent shift in attitudes. Of note, with the exception of Poland attitudes towards a Trump presidency simply got more extreme. Countries in which positive feelings were already expressed became even more optimistic, and countries with negative feelings became less optimistic.

Notably, while these shifts are directionally meaningful, the magnitude of change was relatively small across all countries. In addition, there is very low correlation between a question about the strength of the country’s currency versus the dollar and the currency exchange question (0.1), indicating that this question may not be providing meaningful information about economic perceptions.

Pooled across countries, the overall difference between waves for Relationship is -0.002 (largest absolute value Israel 0.05, smallest India 0.003), for Military is -0.04 (largest absolute value Poland 0.08, smallest Germany 0.02), for Economy is 0.01 (largest absolute value Brazil -0.07, smallest India 0.03), for Trade is 0.01 (largest absolute value Brazil -0.06, smallest India 0.006), and for Currency Exchange is -0.012 (largest absolute value Poland 0.07, smallest Brazil -0.03).

This suggests that economic optimism slightly increased following the election, while national security optimism declined.

Why These Findings Matter

While U.S. voters often focus on domestic issues when choosing a president, the global perspective is important. Foreign perceptions of U.S. leadership can influence international relations, trade partnerships, and diplomatic ties. However, these perceptions appear to be shaped more by broad political impressions than detailed policy analysis. How other countries perceive the U.S. plays into diplomatic relationships and the ability to influence global outcomes through positive relationships rather than force.

Understanding these attitudes can provide valuable insights for policymakers and international stakeholders as they navigate global relationships under a new U.S. administration.

Appendix

About The Polarization Research Lab and our Data

The Polarization Research Lab works to understand and strengthen democracy by conducting rigorous science, producing public goods, and training the next generation of scholars. The Lab is led by PIs Sean J. Westwood at Dartmouth College and Yphtach Lelkes at the Annenberg School for Communication at University of Pennsylvania.
PRL studies the political attitudes of Americans and the behavior of elected officials. Our goals are to:
- Dispel rumors and show hard data on the democratic attitudes of citizens. We conduct the largest continuous tracking poll on YouGov, collecting 1,000 interviews of Americans a week.
- Identify the behavior of elected officials that contributes to toxic polarization.
- Produce publicly available reports and tools to help stakeholders advance responses to toxic polarization that are based in data and evidence. PRL works directly with journalists, democracy practitioners, and policymakers.

PRL Is Supported by

The Charles Koch Foundation
The Hewlett Foundation
The Knight Foundation
The Templeton World Charity Foundation
The Carnegie Corporation
New Pluralists

Global Survey Questions

Randomization was only used in the October 2024 survey. In the January 2025 survey all instances of [randomize: Donald Trump/Kamala Harris] were Donald Trump.

Who do you think will win the upcoming presidential election in the United States of America?
- Kamala Harris
- Donald Trump
- Don’t know
If [randomize: Donald Trump/Kamala Harris] wins the 2024 presidential election, do you think the relationship between [respondent country] and the United States will .
- Improve
- Worsen
- Remain the same
- Don’t know
If [randomize: Donald Trump/Kamala Harris] wins the 2024 presidential election, do you think [respondent country]’s military security will .
- Improve
- Worsen
- Remain the same
- Don’t know
If [randomize: Donald Trump/Kamala Harris] wins the 2024 presidential election, do you think [respondent country]’s economy will .
- Improve
- Worsen
- Remain the same
- Don’t know
If [randomize: Donald Trump/Kamala Harris] wins the 2024 presidential election, do you think trade between [respondent country] and the United States will .
- Improve
- Worsen
- Remain the same
- Don’t know
Imagine if we were to give you $10, but you couldn’t access it for twelve months.

We gave you two options:
1. You could immediately convert this to your local currency at today’s exchange rate,
  OR
2. Wait and convert it to your local currency at the exchange rate in twelve months.
Would you prefer to:
- Convert now
- Wait twelve months to convert